Friday, October 29, 2004

Why Kerry won't win

Polls are quite useless, but they're not completely useless.

The most useful message they provide is one of voter apathy.

In large, this isn't apathy towards George W. Bush, but towards John Kerry.

After all, Kerry is the one who has the mountain to climb. He's the one trying to dislodge the incumbent.

If there were even the slightest indication that Kerry were about to become the next U.S. president, you would expect the polls to have caught some whiff of it. They haven't.

What the polls are telling us is that a lot of people do not see John Kerry as someone for whom it's worth taking an hour out of their working day to go and vote. (Note: why does this election have to fall on a Tuesday? When an election is this close it makes sense for the largest number of potential voters to have the chance to go and cast their vote.)


Politicians thrive on momentum.

John Kerry needs more time to build enough momentum to win.

For John Kerry time is running out.

Only a miracle can save him now...

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