Monday, June 07, 2004

Jargon-English translation

Here is a line-by-line translation of a recent bond market commentary:

Treasuries have now settled in slightly lower on the day.

Bond market investors have modestly sold bonds today. They have seen something that gives cause for concern that inflation and interest rates might be rising, but nothing to get serious about just yet.

Bonds were higher following the jobs report but are now lower.

Investors had bought bonds in reaction to an earlier economic report, since the data didn't provide any convincing evidence of higher inflation.

It looks like the initial spike was short covering on fears of a blowout number in excess of 300,000 new jobs last month.

In particular, the initial buying was by investors who had earlier sold bonds in anticipation of stronger evidence of inflation.

Prices, particularly in the short and intermediate part of the yield curve are lower and deferred Fed funds futures yields are up 2 to 4 basis points after the data.

Investors have mostly sold bonds with a shorter maturity: 6-months to 3 years. This points to higher interest rates as investors sell those bonds most sensitive to imminent interest rates moves by the central bank.

In the cash market, twos are down 1/8th at 2.68% and tens are off 5 ticks at 4.74%.

The price of 2-year bonds have fallen, pushing the yield slightly higher to 2.69%. The yield on 10-year bonds has risen slightly to 4.74%.

December Fed funds are currently at 2.17%. Futures are off with June bonds down 3 ticks and municipals up 5/32nds.

Investors bet the US central bank will set the overnight rate on bond sales among banks to 2.17% by December.

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Which version makes more sense?

Treasuries have now settled in slightly lower on the day. Bonds were higher following the jobs report but are now lower. It looks like the initial spike was short covering on fears of a blowout number in excess of 300,000 new jobs last month. Prices, particularly in the short and intermediate part of the yield curve are lower and deferred Fed funds futures yields are up 2 to 4 basis points after the data. In the cash market, twos are down 1/8th at 2.68% and tens are off 5 ticks at 4.74%. December Fed funds are currently at 2.17%. Futures are off with June bonds down 3 ticks and municipals up 5/32nds.

or

Bond market investors have modestly sold bonds today. They have seen something that gives cause for concern that inflation and interest rates might be rising, but nothing to get serious about just yet. Investors had bought bonds in reaction to an earlier economic report, since that data didn't provide any convincing evidence of higher inflation. In particular, the initial buying was by investors who had earlier sold bonds in anticipation of stronger evidence of inflation. Investors have mostly sold bonds with a shorter maturity: 6-months to 3 years. This points to higher interest rates as investors sell those bonds most sensitive to imminent interest rates moves by the central bank. Since the demand for bonds fell today, this pushed the price of 2-year bonds lower, pushing the yield slightly higher to 2.69% (to offer a greater incentive to purchase the lower priced assets). The yield on 10-year bonds has risen slightly to 4.74%. Investors bet the US central bank will set the overnight rate on bond sales among banks to 2.17% by December.

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All financial market reports should be written in terms both the professional and layman can understand and appreciate. Anything else just isn't good enough.

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